What a (small) difference a year can make
As Parliament disappears until 2014, the year-end polls won’t make delightful reading for the three main parties. The Conservatives on 32% remain six points behind Labour, though the opposition themselves remain below the magic 40% mark, while less than one in 10 of the electorate would vote for the Lib Dems. UKIP, however, will probably be pleased to see themselves on 13%.
Poll-wise, Nigel Farage’s party has had the best year, with figures from last January showing Conservatives on 31%; Labour on 44%; Lib Dems on 11% and UKIP on 8%. So the polls show that UKIP has gained 5% while Labour have lost 6%. It is, of course, far too simplistic to say that Labour’s loss has mostly been UKIP’s gain, though it does suggest that some of the Conservative backbenchers’ views, that UKIP voters are inherently Conservatives, may not necessarily be the case.
The European debate will likely be a factor at the next election as Cameron and Miliband try and work out how best to win UKIP voters. However, the major issue will, as always, be the economy. Here, the Conservatives have reason to be more optimistic given that economic growth and employment are seen to be picking up and likely to continue into the new year, and possibly into 2015 as well. However, Labour’s strategy will likely be not to challenge the coalition’s economic growth narrative but to suggest that more and more individuals are not gaining the benefits that such a recovery should offer.
There is no reason to panic for any of the parties, as a stasis in the polls at this point means that while none are going up, none are going down either and it does mean there is everything to play for. The aim for the Conservatives is to ensure that the good macroeconomic story filters down to become a microeconomic story, the latter on which the Labour party are focusing their efforts. Miliband will hope that the electorate believes that not everyone is in it together. Osborne, however, may have a few options up his sleeve in 2014 to suggest otherwise.