The UKIP fox in the Westminster henhouse? Don’t count your chickens just yet.
Nigel Farage promised a “political earthquake” in the recent local and European elections and he seems to have delivered; the three main parties are certainly shaken. David Cameron has since said that Brussels is “too big, too bossy, too interfering”, and Ed Miliband has said that “we need to talk more about immigration.” Meanwhile, the Liberal Democrats have been divided by infighting and leadership rows. However, the focus now is on the 2015 general election and sadly for UKIP they may not be “the fox in the Westminster henhouse” that they claim to be.
Whilst UKIP performed well in the recent elections they are by no means major political players yet, and it looks as though their real achievement will be putting Europe and immigration firmly on the agenda rather than putting UKIP MPs in Westminster next year.
In 2005, Dr Bonnie Meguid conducted research into how the actions of mainstream parties affects the success of niche parties and the results suggest that recently, for UKIP, all publicity really has been good publicity. Her research found that if mainstream parties attack single-issue counterparts they risk raising the niche party’s profile and support. This has been witnessed in the polls conducted by the Tories and Labour that show that calling Nigel Farage a racist – after his comments on Romanian neighbours – actually increased support for UKIP.
However, this may change now that Mr Farage has made his party’s core policy point the hot topic of debate; UKIP no longer has sole ownership of the issues of immigration and the EU. Additionally, the main political parties have changed tack; it is unlikely that “fruitcake” jibes will be made in the run-up to the general election and politicians will be careful not to insult any potential voters.
If UKIP can no longer claim to be the only party willing to talk about the EU, nor the harangued underdog, then Dr Meguid’s research suggests that their support will dwindle as voters consider who they want to see running the country. UKIP are likely to fade as other parties up the ante to show the electorate that they have been heard.