The great right hope?
A 2016 Clinton vs Christie battle may be the fans’ favourite, but it’s far from a done deal.
Speak to someone with a casual interest in U.S politics about the 2016 U.S. Presidential election and they would likely make the observation that a ticket with New Jersey Governor (and Tony Soprano look-a-like Chris Christie) would be a strong choice for the Republican Presidential nominee. The tough talking Springsteen fan has broad appeal which marks him out as a formidable opponent for any Democratic ticket, but the big question is whether he can secure the Republican nomination.
Tim Montgomerie, writing in a recent editorial for The Times, stated that Chris Christie has proved he’s the big hope for Republicans with his 22 point re-election win in New Jersey’s Governor race the other week. In his recent bid to get re-elected as New Jersey Governor, Christie won a majority of the women’s vote, the Latino vote, and an unprecedented 33% of the black vote.
But it’s not that straight-forward.
While Christie’s willingness to compromise might be a bonus on the Presidential campaign (he’s been willing to work with unions, democrats and minorities to find solutions), there’s the feeling amongst the GOP that he simply isn’t ‘one of them’. He’s too often on the wrong side of the argument when it comes to core Republican issues, for example Christie’s stance on abortion is comparable to many in the Democratic Party, and he abandoned New Jersey’s legal challenge to same-sex marriage, a move that made New Jersey the 14th state in the U.S. to legalise same-sex marriage – hardly a vote winner in the bible-belt. It will not go unnoticed either that it was under Governor Christie that New Jersey expanded Medicaid, meaning partial accommodation with Obamacare.
Many Republicans bemoan the nominations of McCain and Romney for not being Republican enough, and there is a significant number in the GOP that are determined not to make that mistake again by having Christie foisted upon them. They are also only too aware that Christie’s re-election in a traditionally blue state New Jersey should in no way be seen as a bell-weather state.
This fear is supported by a recent NBC poll which revealed that Christie was the preferred candidate of GOP voters in just one region, the Northeast. We should also note that the first three states in the nominating process are Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina, where these social issues will be pivotal and the tea party will jump at the chance to give Christie a bloody nose.
Tea Party darlings such as Kentucky Senator Rand Paul and Senator Ted Cruz, who is credited with leading lawmakers on the charge to defund ObamaCare, as well as being instrumental in securing the Government shutdown on October 1st are perceived by many as the Tea Party’s standard bearers in a 2016 race, but it’s hard to see them as viable Presidential candidates.
Would the Republican Party be so short-sighted as to back what many would see as a no-hoper? Bookmakers suggest that were Hillary Clinton to be the Democratic nominee, she would be almost unbeatable; in fact a recent NBC poll revealed that Hillary Clinton would start with a 10-point lead over Chris Christie in a hypothetical 2016 presidential race, 44 per cent to 34 per cent. It’s not therefore inconceivable that a moderate Republican might see this as a good one to sit on the side-lines, keeping their powder dry for 2020. The wider danger is that the wrong choice by the GOP could alienate the moderates in the party indefinitely.
In spite of the criticism from within his own party, Chris Christie appears reluctant to alter his behaviour, recently being quoted as saying that everyone should stop talking so much about the 2016 presidential race, because doing so hurts President Obama, who’s only a year into his second term.
Many still see him as the GOP’s best chance of re-taking the White House in 2016, particularly should Jeb Bush not throw his hat in the ring, but the tea party look ready to fight their corner with greater conviction than before.
What is clear is that this is going to be a campaign to watch – and it’s already started. The outcome, many suspect, will shape the future of American conservatism for years to come.