The Budget – communicating times of change
In 1947 Labour Chancellor Hugh Dalton made an off-the cuff remark to a lobby journalist from an evening paper (The Star in London, apparently) that there’d be a 1d (1 penny) tax on beer and some changes to dog racing tax, football pools and purchase tax. The journalist got the story into the Stop Press box of the paper before Dalton started his speech and Dalton had to resign…even though there was no economic impact.
Of course leaks are common these days. The way the Budget is reported is driven by a combination of 24 hour news cycles, the immediacy of Twitter and other social channels and political/structural changes.
The Government has to make two economic forecasts by law but different Governments have done it in different ways. Previously it was the Autumn Statement for spending forecasts and the Budget for taxation but it’s all very mixed up now and the process of change has accelerated in recent times.
Labour did the Pre-Budget Report to encourage debate on its plans which could include policy changes that were then confirmed (or not) in the next Budget. The Coalition government and later the Tories introduced the Office for Budget Responsibility in 2010 and did the Autumn Statement for economic forecasts and spending plans which it then confirmed in the Budget. The 2014 Budget for instance announced the pension freedoms which then rolled through the Autumn Statement and the 2015 Budget before becoming law in April 2015.
So as various Governments have sought to encourage debate and openness, there is far more media debate and coverage over a longer period as a result.
Today there is non-stop speculation in the media as well as scope for briefing, pre-briefing, counter briefing and lobbying and so on. Much of the Budget is now leaked and or pre-debated with the Government flying kites and leaking nuggets to gauge response. It means that there are often no surprises, unless when there are massive surprises, like pension freedoms which dropped out of a blue sky. George Osborne used his fifth Budget speech on 19 March 2014 to unveil an unprecedented package of pension reforms, clearly stating “no one will have to buy an annuity” in the future! How many thousands of ‘pensions freedoms’articles have appeared in the media since that Budget bombshell?
The media has improved considerably in making finance come alive and it has become more central to lives as the welfare state recedes. The financial crisis of 2008 with almost all of the banks suffering, brought specialist financial issues into the mainstream and have stayed there, for example pensions, interest rates, PPI etc.
The media has expanded and segmented with more outlets – online, 24 hour news channels, etc – all looking for more content and stories. Lobbyists and politicians can all contribute and debate almost endlessly. And there’s social media, of course. Plus there’s FOIs so lobbyists/politicians can focus on spending, too.
Budgets also have a tendency to unravel in the days after the announcement. The need to get a narrative out on the day while compressing vast reams of information means big changes can get missed and/or misinterpreted as media/analysts/lobbyists/think tanks/product providers get into the detail and uncover the issues that can change the narrative and drive debate.
What does all of this mean for Citigate Dewe Rogerson’s clients? Of course they have the opportunity to join the debate and to broadcast their key messages as there is a massive media appetite for insight and analysis. However the key driver for good Budget coverage is sound preparation: preparing research and analysing existing data that, in turn, drives swift reactions to Budget announcements, fast interpretation of newly released data, promoting a debate from a platform of distinct thought leadership.