Who says that politics has become predictable?
At the beginning of 2015 who would have guessed that the Conservatives would secure a general election victory, the obscure backbencher Jeremy Corbyn would win the Labour leadership contest, or that Donald Trump would emerge as the Republican presidential frontrunner? Looking forward to 2016, there already appears to be a number of dates in the political calendar to leave the most discerning political commentator wrong-footed.
The Prime Minister has promised to renegotiate Britain’s relationship with the European Union, before putting the outcome to vote no later than 2017. While David Cameron has not ruled out campaigning for a Brexit, it appears obvious which outcome he favours: he wants Britain to remain in the EU. But with opinion polls showing the narrowest of leads for the “In campaign” and his Eurosceptic ministers looking increasingly ready to break ranks, Mr Cameron appears one more Eurozone or refugee crisis away from inadvertently achieving the opposite.
The outcome of the vote will undoubtedly have wider implications for the future of the United Kingdom. As Nicola Sturgeon said at the SNP conference last year an “Out” vote in the EU referendum would “materially and fundamentally change the circumstances” that saw Scottish voters reject independence in last year’s referendum, and would lead to an “unstoppable demand” for a second vote on Scottish independence.
Scottish Parliamentary elections are due to take place in May and the always reliable polling data suggests that SNP is on course to eclipse Alex Salmond’s dramatic 2011 victory and return 70 MSPs of a possible 129. If this result is repeated in the summer and the SNP’s supremacy in Scotland is solidified, Ms Sturgeon may struggle to find a more opportune moment to take a second bite at the independence cherry.
Labour haven’t won an election give or take the odd by-election outside Wales since 2005. But the London mayoral election, which is due to take place in May, offers Labour’s candidate and bookies’ favourite Sadiq Khan a chance to end this run. His main rival on the ticket is the conservative candidate and Old Etonian Zac Goldsmith, who bereft of Boris Johnson’s blockbuster appeal, is likely to struggle to mobilise the same level of support in a city that still trends Labour.
If you were to follow the 2015 model, it could be that this time next year may see the new Prime Minister Boris Johnson making the final preparations ahead of President-elect Trump’s first state visit to the UK. But politics isn’t yet that unpredictable and perhaps a more mundane year of “near-happenings”, in which ultimately the UK votes to stay in the EU derailing any SNP plans for a second independence referendum might seem more likely. As for London, Labour might well score a closely fought election victory in London that will stave off Jeremy Corbyn’s defenestration, even if only momentarily. However, look what did happen last year.
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