Autumn Statement round-up
Although it was Philip Hammond’s first Autumn Statement, three spectres could be felt in the background: one of the past, one of the present(ish) and one of the future.
The Chancellor, while not quite in lavish-giving-away mode, also wasn’t being too much of a Scrooge. With building (lots of roads, lots of houses) and borrowing (just lots and lots) dominating the speech, Keynes – the first spectre – would have approved.
The second spectre was George Osborne, to whom Hammond paid a lukewarm tribute before abandoning most of his policies, fiscal rules, rhetoric and even the Autumn Statement itself (it had been a pre-budget report before Osborne took over in 2010). Now it’ll be a Budget in the autumn and a statement in the spring instead.
This may be more revolutionary than it seems, with the spring statement apparently relegated to a smaller version than the current Autumn Statement. However, with the Chancellor also reserving the right to announce new measures, if the economic circumstances require, it may also not be a noticeable change either. As one of the few unexpected announcements, however, it wasn’t one to get the pulses racing.
The third spectre was the looming Brexit, an issue that undoubtedly would have had hearts racing, if it had indeed figured more prominently than it did. Instead, the economic impact of leaving the European Union was only alluded to as part of the problem of why growth may be tricky to forecast and borrowing may be up. Otherwise, Hammond played it safe by refraining from tackling it head on.
Safe actually sums up the style of this speech. Not a long list of policies, which could unravel as did many of his predecessors’, nor too many rabbits, for which he could have been charged with blinding from the bigger, rather bleaker news (see the bits about borrowing going up and growth revisions down).
However, for the Chancellor, it was an accomplished debut with no surprises. How very un-2016.
Written by Simon Hodges, Head of Public Policy (@SimonDHodges)